Ï°Ìâ¶þ´ð°¸Ïê½â Ëæ»ú±äÁ¿¼°Æä·Ö²¼ ÁªÏµ¿Í·þ

·¢²¼Ê±¼ä : ÐÇÆÚÒ» ÎÄÕÂÏ°Ìâ¶þ´ð°¸Ïê½â Ëæ»ú±äÁ¿¼°Æä·Ö²¼¸üÐÂÍê±Ï¿ªÊ¼ÔĶÁ54562a83ec3a87c24028c467

Ï°Ìâ¶þ Ëæ»ú±äÁ¿¼°Æä·Ö²¼

(A)

2.1 ½«Ëæ»ú±äÁ¿X±íʾΪËæ»úÊÔÑéEµÄ»ù±¾Ê¼þµÄº¯Êý£® (1) ÉèE¡ª¡ªÖÀÁ½Ã¶Ó²±Ò£¬XÊÇÕýÃæ³öÏֵĴÎÊý£®

(2) ÉèE¡ª¡ª½ÓÁ¬¶ÔͬһĿ±êÉä»÷Ö±µ½ÃüÖÐÄ¿±êΪֹ£¬ÊÇÉä»÷µÄ´ÎÊý£®

(3) ÉèE¡ª¡ª´Ó?0?{a,b,c,d,e}ËæÒâ³éÈ¡Èý¸öÔªËØ£¬XÊÇaºÍbͬʱ³öÏֵĴÎÊý£® ½â (1) ???(0,0),(0,1),(1,0),(1,1),?£¬ÆäÖÐ0¡ª¡ª·´Ãæ, 1¡ª¡ªÕýÃ棻

X(0,0)?0,X(0,1)?X(1,0)?1,X(1,1)?2£®

(2) ?={1,2,?,n,?}£¬X(k)?k?k?1,2,?,n,??£®

(3) ???(abc),(abd),(abe),(acd),(ace),(ade),(bcd),(bce),(bde),(cde)?£¬Ëæ»ú±äÁ¿XÓÐ1ºÍ0Á½¸ö¿ÉÄÜÖµ£º

X(abc)?X(abd)?X(abe)?1£¬X(acd)???X(cde)?0£®

2.2 ½ÓÁ¬½øÐÐ3´Î¶ÀÁ¢Éä»÷£¬¼ÙÉèÿ´ÎÉä»÷ÃüÖÐÄ¿±êµÄ¸ÅÂÊΪÊýXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼£®

½â Ò×¼ûXÓÐ0,1,2,3µÈ4¸ö¿ÉÄÜÖµÉèAkP(Ak)?0.4£¬¶øÇÒA1,A2,A3Ï໥¶ÀÁ¢£¬Òò´Ë

P?X?0??P(A1A2A3)?P(A1)P(A2)P(A3)?0.4?0.064£¬3p?0.6£¬ÇóÃüÖÐÄ¿±êµÄ´Î

?{µÚk´ÎÉä»÷ÃüÖÐ}(k?1,2,3)£¬ÓÉÌõ¼þP(Ak)?0.6£¬

P?X?1??P(A1A2A3)?P(A1A2A3)?P(A1A2A3)?3?0.6?0.4?0.288£¬2P?X?3??P(A1A2A3)?P(A1)P(A2)P(A3)?0.6?0.216£¬3

P?X?2??1?0.064?0.288?0.216?0.432£¬ÓÚÊÇXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼Îª

?0X~??0.064?10.28820.432??0.216??3£®

2.3 ×Ô¼¯ºÏ{1,2,3}ÖÐÏȺó³é³öÁ½¸öÊý£¬Çó³éµ½Å¼ÊýµÄ´ÎÊýXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼ºÍ·Ö²¼º¯Êý£® ½â Ò×¼ûXÓÐ1,2µÈÁ½¸ö¿ÉÄÜÖµÉèAkP?X?0??P(A1A2)??{µÚk´Î³éµ½Å¼Êý}(k?1,2)£¬Ôò

2?13?2?13£¬P?X?1??1?13?23£®

ÓÚÊÇXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼Îª

?0X~?1??31?2??3?£®

Ëæ»ú±äÁ¿XµÄ·Ö²¼º¯ÊýΪ

? 0 £¬Èôx?0£¬??1F(x)??£¬Èô0?x?1£¬

3??? 1£¬Èôx?1 £®¡ªÏ°Ìâ½â´ð¡ñ2.1¡ª

2.4 ¼ÙÉèÓÐ7¼þÒ»µÈÆ·ºÍ3¼þ¶þµÈÆ·»ì·ÅÔÚÒ»Æð£¬Ã¿´Î´ÓÆäÖÐÈÎÒâ³éÈ¡Ò»¼þ£¬Ö±µ½È¡µ½Ò»µÈƷΪֹ£®ÊÔ·Ö±ðÇó³éÈ¡´ÎÊýXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼£¬¼ÙÉ裬

(1) ·²ÊÇÈ¡µ½µÄ¶þµÈÆ·¶¼·Å»Ø£» (2) ½«È¡µ½µÄ¶þµÈÆ·¶¼ÌÞ³ý£®

½â (1) ·²ÊÇÈ¡µ½µÄ¶þµÈÆ·¶¼·Å»ØÖ±µ½È¡µ½Ò»µÈƷΪֹ£¬Ï൱ÓÚ»¹Ô­³éÑù£®ÉèAiÈ¡µ½µÄÊÇÒ»µÈÆ·}(i?1,2,?)£¬Ôò?XÁ¢£¬Òò´ËXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼Îª

P{X?n}?P(A1?An?1An)?P(A1)?P(An?1)P(An) ?0.7?0.3n?1?{µÚi´Î

?n??A1?An?1AnÒòΪÊÇ»¹Ô­³éÑù£¬ËùÒÔʼþA1,A2,?Ï໥¶À

?n?1,2,?? £®Õâʱ£¬XµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼³Æ×ö²ÎÊýΪp?0.7µÄ¼¸ºÎ·Ö²¼

(2) ½«È¡µ½µÄ¶þµÈÆ·¶¼ÌÞ³ýÖ±µ½È¡µ½Ò»µÈƷΪֹ£¬Ï൱ÓÚ·Ç»¹Ô­³éÑù£®³éÈ¡´ÎÊýXÏÔÈ»ÓÐ1,2,3,4µÈ4¸ö¿ÉÄÜÖµÉèAi?{µÚi´ÎÈ¡µ½µÄÊÇÒ»µÈÆ·}(i?1,2,3,4)£¬Ôò

710£¬310?79?730£¬P?X?1??P(A1)?P?X?2??P(A1A2)?P(A1)P(A2|A1)?P?X?3??P(A1A2A3)?P(A1)P(A2|A1)P(A3|A1A2)?310?71029??78730??71207120£¬?1120 £®

P?X?4??1?ÓÚÊÇXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼Îª

?1X~?7??102730371204?1?£® ?120?2.5 ÒÑÖªÀëÉ¢ÐÍËæ»ú±äÁ¿XµÄ·Ö²¼º¯ÊýΪF(x)£¬ÇóXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼£¬ÆäÖÐ

? 0 £¬Èôx?0£¬??0.5£¬Èô0?x?1£¬??0.6£¬Èô1?x?2£¬F(x)??

?0.8£¬Èô2?x?3£¬?0.9£¬Èô3?x?3.5£¬??? 1 £¬Èôx?3.5£®½â ·Ö²¼º¯ÊýµÄ¼ä¶ÏµãÊÇÀëÉ¢ÐÍËæ»ú±äÁ¿µÄ¿ÉÄÜÖµ£¬Òò´ËXµÄ¿ÉÄÜֵΪ{0,1,2,3,3.5}£»·Ö

²¼º¯ÊýF(x)ÔÚ¼ä¶Ïµãx0ÉϵÄÔ¾¶ÈµÈÓÚP{X?x0}£º

P{X?0}?F(0)?F(0?0)?0.5?0£½0.5 £¬P{X?1}?F(1)?F(1?0)?0.6?0.5?0.1 £¬P{X?2}?F(2)?F(2?0)?0.8?0.6?0.2 £¬P{X?3}?F(3)?F(3?0)?0.9?0.8?0.1 £¬P{X?3.5}?F(3.5)?F(3.5?0)?1?0.9?0.1 £®

ÓÚÊÇXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼Îª

¡ªÏ°Ìâ½â´ð¡ñ2.2¡ª

?0X~??0.5?10.120.230.13.5??£® 0.1??2.6 ¼ÙÉè10¼þ²úÆ·ÖÐÓÐÁ½¼þ²»ºÏ¸ñÆ·£¬ÏÖÔÚÒ»¼þÒ»¼þµØ½«²úÆ·È¡³öÖ±µ½²éµ½Ò»¼þºÏ¸ñƷΪֹ£®

(1) ÊÔÇó³é³ö²úÆ·¼þÊýXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼£»

(2) д³öËæ»ú±äÁ¿XµÄ·Ö²¼º¯ÊýF(x)£® ½â (1) Òý½øʼþAk={µÚk¼þÈ¡µ½µÄÊǺϸñÆ·}(kP?X?1??P?A1??810?3645³éÑé²úÆ·¼þÊýX?1,2,3)£®

2?810?9?845 £¬µÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼Îª

£¬P?X?2??P?A1A2??2?1?810?9?8?145

P?X?3??P?A1A2A3?? £®(2) ÓɳéÑé²úÆ·¼þÊýXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼ÈÝÒ×д³öÆä·Ö²¼º¯Êý

? 0 £¬Èôx?1£¬?36?£¬Èô1?x?2£¬?45 F(x)??44?£¬Èô2?x?3£¬?45? 1 £¬Èôx?3£®?2.7 ¼ÙÉè6ÃûѧÉúµÄ¿¼ÊԳɼ¨µ¥ÖÐÓÐÒ»ÕÅÓвî´í£¬ÏÖÔÚËæÒâÒ»ÕÅÒ»Õŵؼì²éÖ±µ½ÕÒ³öÕâÕųɼ¨µ¥ÎªÖ¹£®ÒÔX±íʾһ¹²ÐèÒª¼ì²éµÄÕÅÊý£¬ÇóXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼£®

½â ¶ÔÓÚÈÎÒâk=1,2,3,4,5,6£¬£¨ÎÞÂÛÊÇ»¹Ô­»¹ÊÇ·Ç»¹Ô­³éÑù£©ÔÚµÚk´Î²é³öÓдíÎóµÄ±íµÄ¸ÅÂʶ¼µÈÓÚ1/6£¨¼ûÀý1.10£©£¬Òò´ËXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼Îª

?1X~??16?2163164165166??16??£®

ÊÂʵÉÏ£¬ÀûÓùŵäÐ͸ÅÂʵļÆË㹫ʽ£¬¿ÉÒÔµÃͬÑù½á¹û£º¶ÔÓÚÈÎÒâk=1,2,3,4,5,6£¬ÓÐ

P{X?k}?(6?1)?(6?k?1)?16(6?1))?(6?k?1)?16£®

2.8 ¼ÙÉè10¼þ²úÆ·ÖÐÇ¡ºÃÓÐ2¼þ²»ºÏ¸ñÆ·£¬´ÓÖÐÒ»¼þÒ»¼þµØ³é³ö²úÆ·Ö±µ½³éµ½ºÏ¸ñƷΪֹ£¬Çó×îºó³é³ö²úÆ·¼þÊýXµÄ·Ö²¼º¯Êý£®

½â ÏÈÇóXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼£®Ò×¼û£¬XÓÐ1,2,3µÈ3¸ö¿ÉÄÜÖµ£¬ÇÒ

P{X?1}?810?45£»P{X?2}?2?810?9?845£»P{X?3}?1?45?845?145 £®

ÓÚÊÇ£¬XµÄ·Ö²¼º¯ÊýΪ

? 0 £¬Èô x?1 £»?4? £¬Èô1?x?2 £»?5F(x)?P{X?x}??

44?£¬Èô2?x?3 £»?45?? 1 £¬Èô x?3 £®¡ªÏ°Ìâ½â´ð¡ñ2.3¡ª

2.9 ¼×ºÍÒÒ¶þÈËÂÖÁ÷¶ÔͬһĿ±êÉä»÷£¬²¢ÇÒ¼×ÏÈÉ䣬ֱµ½ÓÐÒ»ÈËÃüÖÐÄ¿±êΪֹ£®ÒÑÖª¼×ºÍÒÒ¶þÈ˵ÄÃüÖÐÂÊÏàӦΪ0.4ºÍ0.5£¬ÊÔÇó¼×Éä»÷´ÎÊýXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼£®

½â ÉèAi?{¼×µÚi´ÎÉä»÷ÃüÖÐ}£¬Bj?{ÒÒµÚj´ÎÉä»÷ÃüÖÐ}(i,j?1,2,?)£®ÏÔÈ»?Ai?ÒÔ¼°B?j?Ï໥¶À

Á¢£®Òò´Ë£¬ÓÐ

P?X?1??P(A1)?P(A1B1)?0.4?0.6?0.5?0.7£»P?X?2??P(A1B1A2)?P(A1B1A2B2) ?P(A1B1)P(A2)?P(A1B1)P(A2B2) ?0.6?0.5?0.4?0.6?0.5?0.3?0.7£»P?X?3??P(A1B1A2B2A3)?P(A1B1A2B2A3B3) ?P(A1B1)P(A2B2)P(A3) ¡¡ ?P(A1B1)P(A2B2)P(A3B3)?0.3?0.7£®222

¶ÔÓÚÈÎÒâÕýÕûÊýn?1,2,3,?£¬ÓÐ

n?1n?1n?1P?X?n??P?A1B1?An?1Bn?1An??P?A1B1?An?1Bn?1AnBn??0.3?0.4?0.3?0.6?0.5 ?0.3?0.7£®

2.10 Ò»Ìõ½»Í¨¸ÉÏßÉÏ6´¦ÉèÓкìÂÌÐźŵƣ¬ºì¡¢ÂÌÁ½ÖÖÐźŽ»Ì濪·ÅÇÒ¿ª·ÅµÄʱ¼äΪ1:2£®¼ÙÉèÓÐÒ»Á¾Æû³µÑش˽ֵÀÊ»¹ý£¬ÒÔX±íʾËüÊ×´ÎÓöµ½ºìµÆ֮ǰÒÑͨ¹ýÂ̵ƵĴÎÊý£®ÇóXµÄ¸ÅÂÊ·Ö²¼£®

½â Ëæ»ú±äÁ¿XÓÐ0,1,2,?,6µÈ7¸ö¿ÉÄÜÖµ£®Òý½øʼþ£ºAk={Æû³µÔÚµÚk¸öÐźŵƴ¦Ê×´ÎÓöµ½ºìµÆ}£¨k=1,2,3,4,5,6£©£®Ê¼þA1,A2,?,A6ÏÔÈ»¶ÀÁ¢£¬ÇÒP(Ak)?1/3(kP?X?0??P?A1??P?X?k??P?A1?AkAk?1??2313k?1,2,?,6)£®Òò´Ë£¬ÓÐ

£»k?1?k2366?1,?,5? £» £®P?X?6??P?A1?A6???0?X~1??31232222333323444235552366?62? ?63?2.11 ÉèËæ»ú±äÁ¿XµÄ·Ö²¼º¯ÊýΪ

?0 £¬Èôx?0£»?x? £¬Èô0?x?1£»?2 F(x)??2? £¬Èô1?x?3£»?3??1 £¬Èôx?3£¬(1) ÎÊËæ»ú±äÁ¿XÊÇÀëÉ¢Ð͵Ļ¹ÊÇÁ¬ÐøÐ͵ģ¿ (2) Çóʼþ?X?2?,?X?1?,?X?1/2?,?2?X?3?µÄ¸ÅÂÊ£®

½â (1) ÓÉÓÚÇø¼ä(0,1)µÄÿһ¸öÊý¶¼ÊÇXµÄ¿ÉÄÜÖµ£¬¿É¼ûX²»ÊÇÀëÉ¢ÐÍËæ»ú±äÁ¿ÓÉ

¡ªÏ°Ìâ½â´ð¡ñ2.4¡ª